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全球各國的國際旅游業(yè)務(wù)已停歇多時(shí)，中國的入出境旅游業(yè)務(wù)已經(jīng)為零。

2020年年初開始的新冠病毒疫情，對(duì)中國來說，有著自1840年以來非同一般的意義。

依照新冠病毒COVID-19兇殘而狡詐的特性來看，人類在短時(shí)間內(nèi)根本不可能將其徹底消滅，可以預(yù)料，未來幾年甚至十幾年，整個(gè)地球都會(huì)在COVID-19及其各級(jí)變異后代的輪番攻擊中不得消停。

前幾日，我看了美籍華裔醫(yī)學(xué)工作者的一篇文章，感想頗多。這幾日又看了國內(nèi)幾位旅游業(yè)專家和UNWTO及WTTC的有關(guān)文章，內(nèi)心感觸良多。

幾個(gè)月來，我本人也寫了幾篇小文章（有的是用筆名發(fā)表的），或許在另一個(gè)角度給了行業(yè)一些啟示。

到目前為止，全世界有一億多人感染了新冠病毒（未包括無法統(tǒng)計(jì)的），因新冠病毒疫情死亡的人數(shù)近220萬人，關(guān)鍵是，這個(gè)數(shù)字還在不停地增加。

截至北京時(shí)間1月28日17時(shí)05分，全球累計(jì)新冠肺炎確診病例超1億例（央視）

中國在抗擊疫情方面是全球最好的模范國家，中國曾經(jīng)在比較長的時(shí)間里將新冠病毒患者數(shù)字阻停在8萬多。現(xiàn)在這個(gè)數(shù)字已經(jīng)突破10萬，而且僅僅是不到兩個(gè)月時(shí)間，細(xì)思極恐。

去年底，聯(lián)合國世界旅游組織曾經(jīng)做過預(yù)測(cè)，預(yù)言2020下半年，全球旅游業(yè)收入將下落60%～80%。從目前情況來看，全球旅游業(yè)總體收入下落80%～90%是肯定的。從北半球的歐洲、俄羅斯，以及南北美洲的情況來看，2021年新冠病毒疫情是無法得到嚴(yán)格控制的，亞洲的印度，以及非洲等等更是在疫情防控方面一籌莫展。關(guān)鍵是可以廣泛應(yīng)用和有效遏制疫情的疫苗在哪里？在泰國，2020年旅游業(yè)收入總數(shù)下降超過90%，給泰國國家GDP帶來重創(chuàng)。

根據(jù)去年UNWTO的預(yù)測(cè)，國際游客全球旅游消費(fèi)的損失為 8.5億～11億美元，并造成1～1.2億旅游業(yè)工作崗位的流失。這個(gè)數(shù)字是非常保守的，應(yīng)該有1.5億～2億旅游業(yè)工作者基本失業(yè)或完全失去崗位工作。

眾所周知，國際旅游業(yè)日益成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要引擎之一，帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益約占全球經(jīng)濟(jì)總額的8%左右。旅游業(yè)直接和間接創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，占全球所有就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)的十分之一。旅游業(yè)在包括美國、法國、英國、中國、意大利、巴西、澳大利亞、日本、印度、南非、泰國在內(nèi)的許多國家經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展中占有重要地位。

中國旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)怎么辦？中國旅游業(yè)發(fā)展將走向何方？

2019年，中國旅游人數(shù)總計(jì)60億人次，同比增長8.4%；入出境游3億人次，增長3.1%。總收入6.63萬億元人民幣，增長11%；國際旅游收入1313億美元，增長3.3%；旅游業(yè)對(duì)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的綜合貢獻(xiàn)為10.94萬億元人民幣，占GDP的11.05%（綜合貢獻(xiàn)率）。旅游業(yè)促成直接就業(yè)2825萬人，直接和間接就業(yè)7987萬人，占全國的10.31%。2019年中國旅游業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)綜合貢獻(xiàn)還是很不錯(cuò)的。

2017-2019年旅游市場基本情況

最近看了些文章，既有世界旅游組織、法國歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院、世界旅游聯(lián)盟、中國文旅部宏觀方面的，也有香港浩華公司和魏小安司長、趙煥炎先生的微觀方面的。

總之，2020年中國旅游業(yè)是斷崖式下落，旅游業(yè)總體損失為4.5萬億元人民幣（2020年中國GDP超過100萬億元人民幣）。按世界旅游組織的運(yùn)算表述，中國的國際旅游大體倒退了30年，全球旅游業(yè)負(fù)增長幅度大概率超過2003年水平。

我在去年11月份舉辦的“文旅國際峰會(huì)暨第十三世界酒店論壇”大會(huì)開幕式上發(fā)表了對(duì)2021全球旅游業(yè)發(fā)展和看法，我現(xiàn)在的觀點(diǎn)依然沒有改變，那就是：任何國家如果沒有入境的“國際旅游業(yè)收入”，那么該國的旅游業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)是“非常蒼白的”。

左圖：吳軍林主席在國際會(huì)議開幕式上致辭

如今，全球幾乎所有國家都已關(guān)閉了邊境口岸，中國也不例外。以中國的“北上廣深杭”及其他大城市來看，都是國際旅游者去得最多的地方和留下“銀子”最多的地方。

從趙煥炎先生最近的文章中可以得知：上海星級(jí)酒店2020年平均出租率為36.8%，五星級(jí)酒店平均出租率為37.8%……。上海這個(gè)中國酒店業(yè)最發(fā)達(dá)城市都如此，北京廣州深圳等大城市酒店入住率又如何呢？是不是在30%左右或者以下呢？這些個(gè)大城市2020年國際入境的國外游客幾乎為零！

本人長時(shí)間在中國旅游業(yè)的市場一線忙碌，2020年依然飛了10萬公里（高鐵和自駕車不計(jì)），我是比較清楚中國旅游景區(qū)、酒店、旅行社、游艇碼頭、購物店、娛樂場所這些硬性投資比較多的企業(yè)“在疫情之下”的日子是非常不好過的，許多都已經(jīng)倒閉關(guān)門了。

香港浩華公司最近做了個(gè)訪問調(diào)查報(bào)告，主要是針對(duì)2021年第一季度中國酒店業(yè)市場的。總體情況表述來看，2021年第一季度酒店市場“不好于去年同期”的受訪者表達(dá)率達(dá)67%，“與2020年第一季度市場情況持平”的表達(dá)率占20%，市場情況“好于去年同期”的表達(dá)率占13%，這足以說明2021年中國全國酒店業(yè)經(jīng)營收入將面臨更深層面的滑落。

2021年第一季度市場景氣預(yù)期

旅游者集聚的大投入的大景區(qū)和旅游綜合體就更別提了，即使不關(guān)門歇業(yè)，因各地貫徹落實(shí)“非必要不出門”這一政策精神，旅游業(yè)工作現(xiàn)狀非常糾結(jié)和矛盾。春節(jié)前，唯有海南及少數(shù)幾個(gè)南方地區(qū)景區(qū)經(jīng)營的情況會(huì)好一些，雖然南方的許多寺廟都已閉門不接受香客進(jìn)入。

新冠病毒疫情之下，中國旅游業(yè)發(fā)展將走向何方？

關(guān)于政治和宏觀層面，聯(lián)合國秘書長古特雷斯、世界衛(wèi)生組織總干事譚徳塞和中國國家元首都有過很好的綱領(lǐng)性講話及系列經(jīng)典語錄，他們對(duì)世界未來發(fā)展既表現(xiàn)極其憂慮，又都充滿信心。

然而，最關(guān)鍵的是：一、全球疫情何時(shí)能得到全面控制？二、疫苗何時(shí)能在全球快速保障供應(yīng)使用？三、南北半球或東西方國家和地區(qū)旅游出入境口岸何時(shí)重開？

前不久，世界旅游聯(lián)盟在有關(guān)報(bào)告中談到：中國的旅游業(yè)從一開始就處于抗疫的第一線。防控抗疫在有效阻斷疫情經(jīng)由旅游活動(dòng)而傳播和擴(kuò)散的同時(shí)，也讓旅行社、OTA、住宿、景區(qū)、購物等旅游企業(yè)承受了巨大的損失，承擔(dān)了前所未有的財(cái)務(wù)和就業(yè)壓力。中國旅游集團(tuán)、凱撒、華程、眾信、廣之旅、春秋等傳統(tǒng)旅行社，及以攜程、美團(tuán)、飛豬、同程、途牛為代表的在線旅行運(yùn)營商，在自身業(yè)務(wù)停擺且損失巨大的情況下，第—時(shí)間就響應(yīng)了國家有關(guān)號(hào)召。

從其他有關(guān)文章可以得知，2020年，中國旅游業(yè)已有四萬家大小酒店倒閉，十幾萬家企業(yè)“關(guān)停并轉(zhuǎn)”，幾千個(gè)品牌經(jīng)營不下去等等，這在今天看來，依然不是危言聳聽。

根據(jù)2021年1月19日在海口市召開的“海南省旅游和文化廣電體育工作會(huì)議”的數(shù)據(jù)，2020年，海南省共接待國內(nèi)外游客6455.09萬人次，實(shí)現(xiàn)旅游總收入872.86億元人民幣，雖然總體收入比較2019年下滑了10%以上，但還是成為全國旅游恢復(fù)情況最好地區(qū)之一。那么，2021年，海南旅游業(yè)的情況呢？我看未必會(huì)比2020年強(qiáng)多少（建議不要把所謂的“一日游”數(shù)字統(tǒng)計(jì)在內(nèi)）。

針對(duì)全球新冠疫情不停蔓延和中國疫情現(xiàn)狀的不可控性，2021年和未來幾年中國旅游業(yè)不僅僅是“遭受重創(chuàng)”這一簡單說辭。“新冠病毒疫情”將對(duì)中國旅游業(yè)發(fā)展帶來多方面深層次影響和更多毀滅性打擊。

上海市新冠肺炎治療專家組組長張文宏最近談到，從世界疫情來看，新冠病毒已經(jīng)穩(wěn)穩(wěn)地占領(lǐng)了地球，成為地球上的常駐病毒。通過一年的傳播，病毒在不斷變異，我們看到病毒傳播得更快了，但是沒有看到病毒的毒力出現(xiàn)大幅度的降低。這表明我們不得不做好做持久戰(zhàn)的準(zhǔn)備。

前幾日，原國家旅游局司長魏小安寫的一篇文章表明的觀點(diǎn)力度比較大，給行業(yè)人士許多啟示。我本人還是堅(jiān)持去年的一些觀點(diǎn)，中國旅游業(yè)發(fā)展要更多地面對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)問題，最起碼在如下方面值得警醒和重視：

一、既要重視國家的高層精神和宏觀調(diào)控，更要重視新冠病毒疫情殘酷現(xiàn)實(shí)和市場需求的不確定因素，以變求變。中央和國務(wù)院有關(guān)指導(dǎo)性文件和對(duì)旅游業(yè)發(fā)展的有關(guān)建議要及時(shí)修訂調(diào)整。

二、不能被以往“局部”和階段性理想化數(shù)據(jù)分析所迷惑（很多的數(shù)字都是抄來抄去的，很多數(shù)字是重復(fù)統(tǒng)計(jì)的，沒有得到市場切實(shí)驗(yàn)證），現(xiàn)實(shí)就是全球旅游業(yè)基本停擺和死掉了，我們?cè)?ldquo;天災(zāi)”面前不能硬撐，更不能硬來。

三、建議從中央到地方停止一切沒有必要的“旅游政績工程”和所謂的“全域旅游示范區(qū)”、“旅游小鎮(zhèn)”綜合體投資建設(shè)，避免大量的資金做了無效投入，給未來旅游業(yè)發(fā)展帶來沉重的包袱。據(jù)原國家旅游局統(tǒng)計(jì)，2017年全國計(jì)劃投資1.6萬億元人民幣，達(dá)到年增20%；2019年的前幾年旅游投資增速一直為旅游人數(shù)增速的2～3倍。這個(gè)現(xiàn)象很可疑，或者投資數(shù)字是假的，屬于統(tǒng)計(jì)泡沫。如果投資數(shù)字是真的，那就是供大于求的過熱投資，也是一種“泡沫”，必將導(dǎo)致全國諸多地方旅游項(xiàng)目投資供給的過剩。

四、從政府層面，要從行業(yè)幾級(jí)管理上極大程度地消減沒有必要的管理機(jī)構(gòu)和管理人員，甚至裁撤一些多余的機(jī)構(gòu)和部門（當(dāng)前和未來不少公務(wù)員人浮于事之“腐敗”怎么辦？）。

五、資本熱錢投資和所謂行業(yè)并購?fù)顿Y需要非常謹(jǐn)慎。所有資本家的“資本”都是要取得高利潤高回報(bào)的，而且還要有完善的退出機(jī)制。中國文旅部對(duì)旅游業(yè)發(fā)展政策已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)向了，中國旅游市場萎縮了，旅游消費(fèi)者銳減了，大量投資及并購是有諸多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的。中國政府現(xiàn)在也不允許大的資本投機(jī)商和投機(jī)家過度地抄底中國旅游行業(yè)優(yōu)質(zhì)資源和優(yōu)質(zhì)資產(chǎn)。

六、無論是國企或者民企，該倒閉的倒閉，該轉(zhuǎn)行的轉(zhuǎn)行，“天災(zāi)”是殘酷的，市場也是殘酷的，當(dāng)下只有及時(shí)有效地“關(guān)停并轉(zhuǎn)”才是“王道”。

七、“有文化的旅游才是有價(jià)值的旅游”。企業(yè)投資老板多考慮些文化內(nèi)涵豐富的“文旅融合”項(xiàng)目投資，多做些“輕巧”投資項(xiàng)目，不做過多的大量投資和并購，現(xiàn)在通過“大項(xiàng)目洗錢”構(gòu)建利益鏈條是非常危險(xiǎn)的。

八、與時(shí)俱進(jìn)，必須重視新興科技投入、數(shù)字化應(yīng)用和云服務(wù)等新的跨界產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈融合工作，給企業(yè)帶來無限發(fā)展的潛能和生命力。

九、旅游業(yè)是一個(gè)與其他行業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)度很高的行業(yè)（文化的、教育的、體育的、工業(yè)的、外貿(mào)的、交通的等等），也是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展到一定程度后迅猛發(fā)展的“陽光行業(yè)”。旅游業(yè)發(fā)展一定要重視“品牌打造”和“品牌提升”工作，品牌打造是一個(gè)漫長的過程，是急不來的。歐美國家一個(gè)著名品牌基本都有幾十年，上百年的歷史，而我們呢？

十、要考慮如何將企業(yè)“做小做強(qiáng)”。我們總是在投資和做企業(yè)時(shí)“貪大求宏”，這似乎不是原則性錯(cuò)誤，但并非是十分必要的。我們?cè)跉W洲考察時(shí)看到的一些著名產(chǎn)品和非常好的酒店，他們的“門臉”和“門店”都不大，但是它們有一個(gè)共同的特點(diǎn)，特色服務(wù)和企業(yè)文化做得非常不錯(cuò)。

總之，我們迎來的和面對(duì)的2021年變數(shù)比較大，因?yàn)槭艿?020年新冠病毒疫情的衍生性災(zāi)害諸多影響，2021年或許比2020年更加難熬。當(dāng)然，我們也非常希望看到2021年春暖花開之后滿滿的“大地飛歌”和“暢享暢游”，然而，在百年未有之災(zāi)難面前我們不能靠感慨和寫詩解決問題。認(rèn)真想一想，2020年中國GDP100多萬億中有多少是旅游業(yè)直接貢獻(xiàn)的？今天，我們并非絕望，我們一定要非常理性和科學(xué)地發(fā)展第三產(chǎn)業(yè)中的旅游業(yè)，因?yàn)椴焕硇院统让斑M(jìn)，并追求沒有必要的“全國開花的”1000個(gè)旅游小鎮(zhèn)投資建設(shè)和全國幾萬億的旅游項(xiàng)目投資等等，所以，新組建的文旅部主管旅游業(yè)的李金早副部長幾個(gè)月前黯然落馬了。

吳軍林2021.1.29于海口

吳軍林：文旅行業(yè)資深專家、客座教授，世界酒店聯(lián)盟主席、聯(lián)合國經(jīng)社部國際旅游與酒店聯(lián)合總會(huì)執(zhí)行主席、文旅雜志社社長兼總編、《世界酒店》雜志出品人、文旅國際研究院院長、文旅國際峰會(huì)&世界酒店論壇組委會(huì)主席、中愛國際文旅集團(tuán)董事會(huì)主席、泛旅文化集團(tuán)董事長。

The international tourism business of all over the world has stopped for a long time, and China's inbound and outbound tourism business has been zero.

The outbreak of the COVID-19, which began in early 2020, is of extraordinary significance to China since 1840.

COVID-19 the beginning of 2021, according to the ferocious and cunning nature of the COVID-19, it is impossible for mankind to completely eliminate it in a short period of time. It can be expected that in the next few years or even more years, The whole earth will not stop in the rotation attacks of COVID-19 and its mutated offspring at all levels.

A few days ago, I read an article by Chinese-American medical workers. These days read several domestic tourism experts and UNWTO and WTTC related articles very touched.

In the past few months, I have also written a few small articles (some written in pseudonyms), perhaps in another perspective to give the industry some inspiration.

So far, more than 100 million people around the world have been infected with the COVID-19 (not including those that can not be counted), and nearly 2.2 million people have died from the COVID-19 epidemic. Crucially, this number is still increasing.

China is the best model country in the world to fight the epidemic. It has been a long time to stop the number of COVID-19 patients at more than 80,000. Now the number has exceeded 100000, and it is only less than two months. Consider very fear.

At the end of last year, the United Nations World Tourism Organization predicted that global tourism revenue would fall 60~80% in the second half of 2020. From the current situation, it is inevitable that global tourism revenue will fall 80~90%. In Europe, Russia, and North and South America in the northern hemisphere, the 2021 outbreak of the COVID-19 can not be strictly controlled, India in Asia and so on, as well as Africa in the prevention and control of the epidemic. The key is where the vaccine can be widely used and effectively contained? All in all, in Thailand, total tourism revenue will fall by more than 90% in 2020, which will hit the overall GDP of Thailand.

Last year, UNWTO forecast global tourism losses of $850 million ~1.1 billion in global tourism consumption for international tourists, and permanent loss of million tourism jobs. This number is very conservative. There should be 150 million people working in the tourism industry who are basically unemployed or completely out of work.

As is well known, international tourism is increasingly becoming one of the main engines of the global economy, accounting for about 8% of the global economy, and it also creates direct and indirect jobs, accounting for one tenth of all global jobs. Tourism plays an important role in the economic development of many countries, including the United States, France, the United Kingdom, China, Italy, Brazil, Australia, Japan, India, South Africa and Thailand.

What about China tourism economics? Where is the development of China's tourism industry?

2019, A total number of 6 billion Chinese tourists, year-on-year growth of 8.4%; 300 million inbound and outbound tours of person-time, The increase rate was 3.1%. Total revenue 6.63 trillion Yuan, An increase of 11 per cent. International tourism revenues of $131.3 billion Yuan, The increase was 3.3%. The comprehensive contribution of tourism to the national economy is 10.94 trillion Yuan, accounting for 11.05% of the GDP(Comprehensive contribution rate). Direct employment of 28.25 million people, 79.87 million direct and indirect workers, 10.31% of the country, China's tourism economic comprehensive contribution is still very good in 2019.

Recently, I read some articles, including the macro aspects of the World Tourism Organization, the French European Economic Research Institute, the World Tourism Union and the Director of Xiao'an, as well as the micro aspects of Horwath HTL and Mr. Zhao Huanyan.

In short, tourism in 2020 is a cliff-like down, the overall loss of tourism is 4.5 trillion Yuan. (China's GDP has exceed 100 trillion Yuan in 2020). According to the operation of the World Tourism Organization, China's international tourism has generally retreated by 30 years, and the negative growth rate of global tourism has exceeded the level of 2003 Year.

At the opening ceremony of the "International Summit and the Thirteenth World Hotel Forum" held in November last year, I expressed my view on the development and view of the global tourism industry in 2021, now my view remains the same, that is if no country has entry "international tourism income ", then the country's tourism economy is "weak".

Today, almost all countries around the world have closed border crossings, and China is no exception. In view of China's "Beijing、Shanghai、Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou" and other mega-cities, it is the place where international tourists go most and leave the most "Silver Money" place!

According to Mr. Zhao's recent article, the average rental rate of Shanghai star hotels in 2020 is 36.8%…… and the five-star hotel is 37.8% Etc., and Shanghai is the most developed city in China, so how about the hotel occupancy rate in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other big cities? Is it about 30% or less? These big cities have almost zero international visitors!

I've been on the front line of China's tourism market for a long time still flying 100000 kilometers in 2020 (high-speed rail and self-driving is not be counted), I am more aware of China's tourist attractions, hotels, travel agencies, marinas, shopping mall and entertainment venues, these hard investment enterprises "under the epidemic" life is very difficult, Many have gone out of business.

Horwath HTL recently made a survey report, mainly aimed at the first quarter 2021 China hotel market forecast. Overall, 67% of respondents said that the hotel market in the first quarter of 2021 was worse than the same period last year, 20% said that the market was flat compared to the same period in the first quarter of 2020, and 13% said that the market was better than 2020. This is enough to show that China's national hotel industry operating income will face decline in 2021 with deep level.

Not to mention the large scenic spots and tourist complexes where tourists gather, even if they do not close their business, it is a very contradictory fact that tourists "do not need to go out" without going out. Only Hainan and a few southern scenic spots will be better, many southern temples have closed doors to pilgrims.

Under the COVID-19 epidemic, where will China's tourism development go?

At the political and macro level, the UN Secretary General Guterres, the World Health Organization Secretary General Medes and the Chinese head of state all have good programmatic speeches and a series of quotations. They are both extremely worried about the future development of the world and full of confidence.

However, the key is: first, when can the epidemic be controlled totally? II. When can vaccines be globally guaranteed for supply? III. When will the reopening of entry and exit ports in the North and South hemispheres or the East and West countries?

Not long ago, the World Tourism Federation talked about in the relevant report: China's tourism industry has been on the front line of anti-epidemic the beginning. At the same time, it also makes travel agencies, OTA、accommodation, scenic spots, shopping and other tourism enterprises bear huge losses, and bear unprecedented financial and employment pressure. China Travel Group, Caesar, HCG, U-tour, COZL, Spring Travel and other traditional travel agencies, with Ctrip, Meituan, Fliggy, Tongcheng Tourism Group, Tuniu as the representative of online travel operators, in their own business shutdown and huge losses, the first time in response to the call of the state.

By the end of 2020, it can be seen from the other relevant articles that China's tourism industry has more than 100,000 enterprises "shut down and turn", thousands and brands can not continue to operate, In today's view, this is still not alarmist.

The Hainan Provincial Conference on “Tourism, Culture, Radio, Television and Sports” held in Haikou on January 19,2021, revealed, in 2020, Hainan Province received 64.5509 million domestic and foreign tourists, Total tourism revenue of 87.286 billion Yuan, To be one of the best tourist destinations in the country, Overall income fell by more than 10% compared with 2019. So, 2021, What about Hainan tourism? I don't think it will be much better than 2020. (It is advisable not to count so-called " one day trips".)

In view of the spread of the global COVID-19 epidemic and the uncontrollable nature of the current situation in China, China's tourism industry in 2021 and the next few years is not just simple.The epidemic of novel coronavirus will bring profound influence and more devastating blow to the development of China's tourism industry.

Zhang Hongwen, head of the Shanghai COVID-19 Pneumonia treatment expert Group, recently said: from the world epidemic situation, the COVID-19 has steadily occupied the earth and become a resident virus on the earth. We see the virus spreading faster, but we do not see a significant reduction in its virulence. This shows that we have to prepare for a protracted war.

The other day, the former head of the National Tourism Administration Wei Xiaoan wrote an article to show a relatively strong point of view, to the industry has more inspiration. I myself insist on some of last year's views that China's tourism development should be more realistic problems , at least in the following aspects worthy of warning and .

First, we should not only attach importance to the national high-level spirit and macro-control, but also attach importance to the cruel reality of the COVID-19 virus epidemic situation and the uncertain factors of market demand in order to change.Relevant guiding documents and proposals on the development of tourism issued by the Central Committee and the State Council should be revised and adjusted in a timely manner

Second, can not be confused by Previous partial and local and stage idealized data analysis (a lot of numbers are copied, many of the figures are duplicated, there are no verified practically by real market), the reality is that the global tourism industry has basically stopped and died, we can not support in the face of "natural disasters", but not hard to come.

Third, it is suggested that all unnecessary "tourism achievements project" and the so-called "all-for-one tourism demonstration plot " and "tourist town" complex investment and construction should be stopped from the central to the local level, so as to avoid a large amount of invalid investment and bring a heavy burden to the future tourism development. According to the national tourism administration, the national 2017 plans to invest 1.6 trillion yuan, 20% a year, tourism investment growth in 2019 before a few years have been for 2 ~ 3 times the number of tourist, this phenomenon is very suspicious Number is false, or investment bubble belong to statistics If the investment is really, that is, supply of overheating investment, is also a kind of bubble, will lead to the excess supply of many local tourism project investment

Fourth, from the government level, from several levels of industry management to greatly reduce unnecessary management agencies and managers, and even abolish some redundant institutions and departments. (What about the current and future overstaffed and corruption among civil servants?)

Fifth, capital investment and so-called industry M & A investment needs to be very cautious. The "capital" of all capitalists is to achieve high profits and high returns, and there is a perfect exit mechanism. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China has shifted its policy towards tourism development,The China Tourism market has shrunk, consumers have plummeted, and there are many risks to large investments and mergers and acquisitions. The Chinese government now does not allow large capital speculators to tap the quality resources and good assets of the tourism industry.

Sixth, Whether it is state-owned enterprises or private enterprises, the closure of the closure, the transformation of the operation ," natural disasters "is cruel, the market is cruel, only timely and effective" closure and transformation "is the" king ".

Seventh ," cultural tourism is valuable tourism ", enterprise investment owners consider more cultural connotations of the "cultural integration" project investment, do more "light" investment, do not do too much investment, now through "big project money laundering" to build a chain of interests is very dangerous.

Eighth, keep pace with the times, we must attach importance to the integration of new cross-border industrial chains, such as new scientific and technological inputs, digital applications and cloud services, so as to bring unlimited potential and explosive power to enterprises.

Ninth, tourism is a highly related industry(Culture education sports industry foreign trade transportation and so on), but also the economic development to a certain extent after the emergence of "sunshine industry ", tourism development must pay attention to" brand building "and" brand promotion "work, brand building is a long process, is not urgent. A famous brand in Europe and the United States has a history of decades and hundreds of years. And us?

Tenth, we should consider how to make enterprises "small and strong ". We are always "greedy" when investing and doing business, which is not a mistake of principle, but not very necessary. Some of the famous products and very good hotels we saw during our European tour, their "door faces" and "stores" are not big, but they have a common feature and the characteristic service and enterprise culture are very good.

In short, the 2021 variables we face are relatively large, because of the many derivative disasters of the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic, 2021 may be more difficult than 2020. Of course, we also hope and optimistic to see the 2021 spring blooming full of "earth flying song" and "enjoy a swim ", however, in the face of a hundred years of disaster, we can not rely on emotion and poetry to solve the problem. Consider carefully, how many of China's more than GDP of 100 trillion Yuan in 2020 is the direct contribution of tourism? Today, we are not despairing, we must be very rational and scientific development of tourism in the tertiary industry, because of the irrational and turn, and pursue it is not necessary to "flower of the nation's" 1000 tourist town construction investment and the trillions of dollars in tourism project investment, and so on, so, a vice minister in charge of tourism in the newly established Ministry of culture and tourism fell down a few months ago.

Written by Wu Junlin, Haikou, 2021.1.29.

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吳軍林：并非絕望——中國旅游業(yè)“疫情期”發(fā)展有關(guān)問題思考